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APRIL 14,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:57 P.M. ET: 

ERASED – President Obama has removed Cuba from the US.'s terror-state list, which will allow the resumption of diplomatic relations with Castroland.  As usual with the brilliant negotiators we have running the country, we got nothing in return.  And there doesn't appear to be much evidence supporting the removal.  Castro's thousands of political prisoners could not be reached for comment.

GOOD STUFF – Thanks to the brilliant negotiating skills of Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, that committee unanimously endorsed legislation giving Congress an important say in any formal agreement we make with Iran on its nuclear program.  Secretary Kerry testified vigorously against the bill this morning, but, later in the day, when it was clear it would pass the committee overwhelmingly, the White House hung Kerry out to dry and announced that Obama wouldn't veto it if it eventually arrives at his desk, which it probably will.  The fact that all Dems went along indicates that they're reading the handwriting on the wall, and probably their constituents' letters.  Polls show overwhelming public support for a congressional role in any Iran agreement.

THE NEW (OR NEWEST) HILLARY – Hillary Clinton's rollout of her 2015 version ain't goin' so well.  In her meetings with groups of small, regular, genuine people – the kind she'd never talk to in real life – she's coming off as minor, uncomfortable, and ineffective.  Meanwhile, it is reported that the small, regular, down-to-Earth van in which she's traveling actually is a Secret Service van with a large, flat-screen TV and a bed.  Polling in the next few months will show whether Hillary is making any impression in Iowa, where her campaign is now centered.  If not, look for the possibility that she may get some competition.

ON THIS DAY – This is the 150th anniversary of the assassination of Abraham Lincoln at Ford's Theater in Washington.  Historians are quick to note that he did not actually die until the next day.  It is unlikely that Lincoln, with his awkward, rural speaking style, high-pitched voice and lack of formal education could be elected today.  Can you just imagine him on the Today Show?   But he was probably our wisest president, and he never used a teleprompter.  You can visit Ford's Theater in Washington, and the wonderful museum that houses items from the night of the murder.  There are no direct descendants of Lincoln alive today.  There was an Abraham Lincoln II, the son of Lincoln's only son to live to adulthood, Robert Todd Lincoln, but Abraham Lincoln II died at the age of 16 in 1890.  He had two sisters, Mary Todd Lincoln, who died in 1938, and Jessie Harlan Lincoln, who died in 1948.  The last direct descendant, Robert Todd Lincoln Beckwith, died in 1985. 

April 14, 2015       Permalink   

WILL HILLARY DEFEND THIS? – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:  Hillary has many serious obstacles to overcome in her race for the White House.  One of the most serious is that she was a secretary of state who oversaw a foreign policy increasingly seen as a disaster.  Ed Rogers, in the Washington Post, states well the extent of the disaster and its impact on the American electorate.  How will Hillary explain this away? 

Over the next 20 months, how many enemies of the United States can President Obama outright lose to or accommodate? He has embraced Cuba, acquiesced to Iran and gone silent on Syria and continues to be ignored by Russia; he has done much to embolden our adversaries. Meanwhile, our allies — from Britain and Canada to Japan, Egypt and Israel — are at best bewildered and at worst disgusted with how this administration has conducted foreign policy over the past six years.

And the disillusionment doesn’t end there. The current RealClearPolitics average of the president’s foreign policy job approval is dismal, with 53 percent of Americans expressing disapproval of Obama’s handling of foreign policy and only 37 percent approving of the job he is doing. It doesn’t appear there is anything about a “more of the same” message on foreign policy that will sell during the 2016 campaign. In fact, things are so bad that foreign policy has broken through the American consciousness in a way that it seldom does. In the annual Pew Research survey on the public’s policy priorities, “For the first time in five years, as many Americans cite defending the U.S. against terrorism (76%) as a top policy priority as say that about strengthening the nation’s economy (75%).” Voters are worried and they want a wholesale change and a new direction.

To make matters worse, the rolling train wreck of Obama’s foreign policy could be the gift that keeps on giving. Our adversaries know they only have about 20 months left under Obama before they potentially face a more formidable opponent. The pace of their challenges to the United States might be quickening. Just in the past week, we saw Russian President Vladimir Putin approve the sale of missiles to Iran and Iran’s supreme leader publicly lecture Obama on what is and is not in the Iran nuclear framework agreement, while eager-to-please Obama gave a wet kiss to Cuba even as Raúl Castro looked bored sitting next to him.

COMMENT:  What does Hillary say?  Barack, I hardly knew ye?  Any Republican presidential candidate is going to roll the clips of her as secretary state, failing and failing.  And the failures appear to be continuing.

And yet, if Hillary distances himself from Obama, he could retaliate, especially if there's competition for the Dem nomination.  I really don't know how she can navigate this with any credibility.  Maybe she can just say, "Credibility is overrated."  She probably believes it.

April 14, 2015       Permalink

OH, THE ANGUISH – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:   Hillary's roll-out, or tweet-out, was less than spectacular, drawing as much ridicule as praise.  And now she's embroiled in a needless battle with the mayor of New York, who'd been her campaign manager when she was in the Senate.  Once again her campaign looks amateurish and petty, as in 2008.  From the New York Post: 

He’s Benedict Bill.

Democratic leaders are fuming after Mayor Bill de Blasio turned his back on mentor and megasupporter Hillary Clinton by not endorsing her presidential bid.

A party source told The Post on Monday that Hizzoner has rankled the top echelon so much that donors may pull support for him when he’s up for re-election.

“Some of Hillary’s biggest bundlers are like, ‘WTF?’ ” the source said.

A city Democratic insider said he fielded furious calls and texts from Clinton’s people all day Monday, the day after de Blasio sniffed on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that it was too early to endorse any candidate.

“I need to see any actual vision of where [candidates] want to go . . . We need to see the substance,’’ said de Blasio, who has landed political jobs thanks to Clinton and her husband, Bill, and even served as campaign manager during her 2000 Senate bid.

A Clinton source scoffed: “He’s known her for, like, 20 years! He doesn’t know what her philosophy of government is?”

The Democratic insider added: “The Clinton people are really angry. They’re furious.”

COMMENT:  That's Little League ball on the part of the Clinton camp.  I mean, who cares what the mayor of  New York does?   Everyone knows he'll eventually endorse his old partner.  By blowing up at the fact that he isn't fawning all over the queen on her first day out, the Clintonians show, once again, their smallness and arrogance.  And you may be sure that these attitudes come from the top.

I just hope Hillary doesn't blow up at her new granddaughter for not being out on the campaign trail already.  That would get noticed.

April 14, 2015       Permalink

OUTRAGEOUS – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  Wow, it certainly didn't take long.  Russia is already moving to take advantage of the nuclear "agreement" with Iran, and in a way that is disastrous for us.  From Reuters:   

(Reuters) - Russia paved the way on Monday for missile system deliveries to Iran and started an oil-for-goods swap, signaling that Moscow may have a head-start in the race to benefit from an eventual lifting of sanctions on Tehran.

The moves come after world powers, including Russia, reached an interim deal with Iran this month on curbing its nuclear program.

The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ending a self-imposed ban on delivering the S-300 anti-missile rocket system to Iran, removing a major irritant between the two after Moscow canceled a corresponding contract in 2010 under pressure from the West.

One of the most effective anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems in the world.  Possession by Iran would be devastating to any military threat the West or Israel might make.  Nice going, John Kerry.

A senior government official said separately that Russia has started supplying grain, equipment and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil under a barter deal.

Sources told Reuters more than a year ago that a deal worth up to $20 billion was being discussed and would involve Russia buying up to 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day.

Officials from the two countries have issued contradictory statements since then on whether a deal has been signed, but Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday one was already being implemented.

"I wanted to draw your attention to the rolling out of the oil-for-goods deal, which is on a very significant scale," Ryabkov told a briefing with members of the upper house of parliament on the talks with Iran.

"In exchange for Iranian crude oil supplies, we are delivering certain products. This is not banned or limited under the current sanctions regime."

COMMENT:  Have you noticed that only two forces in the world have grown more powerful since Obama took office?  I'm referring to Communism and militant Islam.

Coincidence?

April 14, 2015       Permalink

CRUNCH TIME – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  Today the Senate Foreign Relations Committee takes up the Corker-Menendez bill, which would give Congress a say, by law, in the Iran nuclear deal.  There is intense negotiating going on behind the scenes.  From Fox: 

How much say Congress has on a possible nuclear deal with Iran will be tested Tuesday as a controversial bill goes up for a vote in the Senate Foreign Relations committee.

The Obama administration has been very critical of legislation that would give Congress a final say in approving or rejecting a deal.

In an interview with The New York Times, Obama said the newly agreed on framework of a nuclear deal with Iran represents a “once in a lifetime opportunity” to prevent Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon and to move toward stabilizing the Middle East.

On Monday, the administration stepped up its lobbying campaign on Capitol Hill.

"The way the legislation is currently written is something that we strongly oppose," White House press secretary Josh Earnest said. "But, again, we continue to have extensive conversations with members of Congress on Capitol Hill."

Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a foreign trip to meet with members of the House to discuss the negotiations. Kerry, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and senior officials in the intelligence community were holding classified briefings Monday and Tuesday with members of the House and Senate.

Earnest said some Republicans are "rigidly partisan" and will reject any deal just because Obama supports it. He said that while there is some Democratic opposition, administration officials will continue to talk with members of his party. So far, the president and other senior administration officials have made more than 130 telephone calls to members of Congress to discuss the negotiations.

COMMENT:  Some news sources say that Democrats and Republicans in the Senate are moving toward agreement on the final shape of the bill, but I'm skeptical that Democrats will provide the votes to override a presidential veto.   You can hear the question that the Democratic establishment will put to them:  "Do you want to humiliate the first black president?"  That's the way the game is played.  You'd never know we're dealing with an issue that could affect the very survival of millions of people.

Now comes crunch time. 

April 14,  2015     Permalink

APRIL 13,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:46 P.M. ET:

A THING FOR HILLARY – From Vocativ.com:  "Hillary Clinton’s Facebook pages have an unexpected fan base. At least 7 percent of Clinton’s Facebook fans list their hometown as Baghdad, way more than any other city in the world, including in the United States."  This could be big.  The Baghdad vote is expected to be decisive in the 2016 presidential election, along with the vote of the dearly departed in Chicago.

OVER – Marco Rubio had a great campaign launch in Miami, electrifying his followers with this line:  "Just yesterday, a leader from yesterday began a campaign for President by promising to take us back to yesterday.  But yesterday is over, and we are never going back."  I love it.  Marco was sharp.  Hillary, cancel the call to the moving company. 

WARNING – Terror groups are targeting American soldiers.  From the Washington Times:  "The military command in charge of protecting the U.S. homeland has sent a message to troops, warning them to hide family information from terrorist groups that are trying to frighten them.  The memo warns against using 'military slang' in public and decorating a home in military items — social conduct that might make troops a target for the Islamic State, the terrorist group also known as ISIL and ISIS.  U.S. Northern Command sent the 'official use only' message as a reaction to the Islamic State posting the names of 100 American service members as targets for attacks."  Of course, the White House has told us that the war on terror is over.

WORLD-CLASS MOTHER – This is great, from Fox:  "When an Alabama mother learned that her teenage kids were loud and disruptive in a movie theater, she took to Facebook to apologize for their behavior and make amends in a post that has gone viral.

"Kyesha Smith Wood, of Birmingham, Alabama, dropped off her teenage son, daughter and step-daughter at the movies Friday night to see a showing of the Disney film 'Cinderella.'  When Wood picked the kids up after, her son informed her that the girls were rude during the movie. He revealed that a woman had approached them after to let them know that, because her husband recently lost his job, this was the last movie her family would be seeing for a long time. The woman said that the girls' behavior had ruined the experience for them.

"Wood hit the roof and issued a public Facebook apology.   When the Jefferson County Sheriff's Office shared the Facebook post, it went viral, getting thousands of shares.  Eventually, it reached Rebecca Boyd of Adger, Alabama, who responded that she was the woman from the theater.  Boyd reached out to Wood, and the mom is having the girls write personal notes of apology and contribute their allowance money to pay for the Boyd family’s next movie night."  Now that is parenting.

April 13, 2015       Permalink

BULLETIN:  MARCO NOW IN – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:   Even before his big rally planned for tonight, Marco Rubio has made it official.  From The New York Times:

MIAMI — Senator Marco Rubio of Florida announced his candidacy for president Monday morning in a call to donors, becoming the third Republican to officially enter the 2016 contest.

Mr. Rubio will make a formal announcement Monday evening here in which he is expected to present himself as the embodiment of generational change who can unite the Republican Party’s factions and offer economic solutions for the 21st century.

At 43, the youngest candidate in the rapidly growing 2016 presidential field, Mr. Rubio is expected to cast himself as a forward-looking, next-generation leader — and an implicit contrast with both Jeb Bush, 62, whose family has dominated Republican politics for nearly three decades, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, 67, the wife of a former president and the likely Democratic nominee.

Mr. Rubio joins his Senate colleagues Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, who both have announced their candidacies. Other Republican hopefuls, including Mr. Bush and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, are also preparing to officially enter the race.

Mr. Rubio is expected to campaign on themes that emphasize American greatness and the American dream, an optimistic, aspirational message that he outlined in his newly released book, “American Dreams.”

He is also angling to become the youthful face of a party that skews older and has struggled to attract young voters, blacks and Hispanics. Many mainstream Republicans hope that a Cuban-American who speaks fluent Spanish can help draw Hispanic voters, a growing demographic that will be critical during the general election, into the party.

COMMENT:  The Republican race is becoming very exciting.  The Democratic race?  Wake me when it's over.

April 13, 2015       Permalink

ON SCIENCE – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:   The word "science" is one of the most misused words in the language.  For too many people, including presumably "educated" people, it evokes a kind of magic.  Science is perfect.  Science is pure.  Anyone who disagrees with the latest scientific idea is "anti-science," or a flat-Earther. 

Science is none of those.  Science is a struggle, with many errors and miscalculations along the way.  Just think, if you are of a certain age, how the treatment of heart disease has changed over the years. Yet the treatments of 40 years ago were also developed by "scientists."

The New York Post has a wonderful essay, cautioning us about a blanket acceptance of "science":

First it was high cholesterol, which the nation’s top nutrition panel recently declared is no longer a “nutrient of concern” — reversing 40 years of official warnings.

Now, reports The Washington Post, the scientific consensus on whether Americans eat too much salt is shifting.

“There is no longer any valid basis for the current salt guidelines” that recommend no more than 2,300 milligrams of sodium a day, warns one researcher on a landmark study published last year in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“So why,” she asks, “are we still scaring people about salt?”

OK, the debate’s far from settled. Both sides agree that too much salt in the diet is dangerous. But they have very different ideas about just how much is too much.

Salt guidelines have been in effect for more than three decades, but the advisable target number has shifted over the years.

And even the author of the landmark 1973 study that served as the basis for the dietary guidelines says her paper was meant to spur more research, not serve as final word on the subject.

All of which should remind us that even the most overwhelming scientific consensus — whether on healthy diets or, yes, even climate change — is still a work in progress.

Sometimes the findings hold up. But often they won’t. That’s science.

Federal officials, in particular, need to stop pushing the idea that tentative findings are hard fact. For decades, the feds pushed the Food Pyramid diet — only to eventually realize they’d gotten it almost exactly wrong.

All too often, you just have to take what the scientists say with a large, er, grain of salt.

COMMENT:  When I was a student at the University of Chicago I had to take a course called Natural Science I.  It was a basic science course designed for non-scientists, and we all hated it.  We were taught a number of scientific theories that won wide acceptance, but were eventually proved wrong.  I once asked the instructor, "Professor, why are we learning all these wrong theories?"  He replied, "We want you to understand how science proceeds." 

The most important word in that reply is "proceeds."  Science isn't static.  There's no such thing as "settled science."  It is always moving, and there are many surprises.  Thank of that the next time you're told that global warming is "settled science."  It's as settled as the heart remedies were of 40 years ago.

April 13, 2015       Permalink

CAN SHE MAKE IT? – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  Although some in the media, especially at CNN, greeted Hillary Clinton's announcement with unabashed joy, the nation seemed able to restrain itself.  I do not see fireworks going off.  And Andrew Malcolm, one of the best commentators around, wonders why Hillary really wants to be president.  From IBD: 

Sunday was not the best day for Hillary Clinton to launch her bid. It was the 16th anniversary of a Federal judge holding hubby Bill in contempt for misleading her about his sexual relationship with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky. A reminder of the tawdry scandals, stonewallings and ethical controversies that seem attracted to the Clintons like swarming barnyard insects.

And it's not the best position for Hillary Clinton to credibly argue that her lackluster State Department tenure, including the deadly, avoidable Benghazi incident, qualifies her to be commander-in-chief. "Does America want a third Obama term?” Ted Cruz asked needlessly.

Then as always there's history: Since FDR in 1944, U.S. voters have given the same party three consecutive White House terms only once, 1988 when Vice President George H.W. Bush won, in effect, a third Reagan term.

But Reagan was popular, 57% approval. Obama not so much (46%).

“It’s hard for any party to hang on to the White House for 12 years,” recently noted Hillary's husband, whose two-term legacy was inadequate to boost his own vice president to victory in 2000.

In her day-before-the-announcement announcement video Clinton explained: "Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion.” Again with the "want."

In not the best choice of talking points, reminding Americans of the worst economic recovery since World War II, the ex-Obama cabinet member said: "Americans have fought their way back from tough economic times" under Obama.

Then, the woman who claimed to be "dead broke" with two mansions who's been demanding $300,000 plus a crudite assortment for every speech, added: "But the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top.” Do ya think? And which millionaires would that be?

COMMENT:  Wonderfully stated, from Andrew.  Hillary has not yet been tested in combat against real Republicans.  There is nothing to suggest she'll do well.  But, as we know, that depends largely on which Hillary shows up.  I'm taking wagers.

April 13, 2015       Permalink

MARCO'S DAY – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  Marco Rubio will announce his candidacy for president this evening in Miami, his home town.

When it was realized that he was going to announce one day after Hillary, some wondered whether his timing was self-defeating, whether he'd be lost in the Clinton avalanche.  That's still possible, of course, but I think it's also possible that his timing is brilliant.  The contrast between the contrived Clinton, fresh from the repair shop, and the young, dynamic Rubio will be stunning...if the mainstream media doesn't try to snuff Rubio out by ignoring him.   From the Washington Post: 

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the son of Cuban immigrants whose rapid political ascent was nearly blocked five years ago by national Republican leaders, will formally launch his campaign for president Monday evening in his hometown of Miami.

Rubio, the junior senator from Florida, will make the announcement in front of the city’s Freedom Tower, an iconic, Ellis Island-like downtown landmark where the federal government once processed Cuban immigrants fleeing the Castro regime. The site holds great personal importance for Rubio, his family and the city's influential Cuban-American community.

The announcement is expected to launch Rubio near the top of a crowded field of GOP presidential candidates even as recent polls have suggested that he will have to compete for support among other frontrunners, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ted Cruz (R-Tex.).

In recent weeks, Rubio has done little overt campaigning and has avoided joining the early fray, focusing instead on holding a handful of discreet fundraisers in New York, California, Texas, Illinois and Washington while consulting his family and close circle of advisers ahead of a formal launch.

But soon, he is expected to launch a tour of early primary states. After his announcement on Monday, he'll return to Capitol Hill on Tuesday. On Thursday he'll travel to Boston for a fundraiser, before traveling to New Hampshire on Friday to join other GOP presidential candidates at a Republican summit, in Nashua, N.H.

COMMENT:  Marco will probably be hit especially hard by the press because he's dynamic, attractive, and a symbol of resistance to Fidel Castro.  There are still some on the left who cling to a romantic view of the Cuban "revolution" that brought Fidel to power.  Fidel has now handed that power to his brother, Raul.  I guess that's how "revolutionary" regimes do things.

Rubio has emerged as a fine spokesman on foreign policy, far more sophisticated than the amateurish Barack Obama.  He is quick on his feet, and tends to immerse himself in issues.  He is not perfect, and has had some wobbles and inconsistencies, but, on balance, I see him as a very powerful candidate who could defeat Hillary in the general election.  He's hard to resist.  She is eminently resistible.

April 13,  2015     Permalink